As Donald Trump prepares to assume the presidency of the United States again, many questions remain about what his policy towards the Middle East would look like during a second term.
With trust in global institutions declining and geopolitical lines fragmenting, the region’s future remains precarious.
Since the ouster of Syrian president Bashar al Assad and the end of his regime, and with the ongoing genocide of Palestinians in Gaza, the arrival of team Trump in Washington on January 20, 2025 will likely be ominous.
Trump often utters statements that he may or may not mean, that could carry life and death consequences for people around the world.
Trump and Gaza
When it comes to Palestine, Trump has given some indication of his policy in recent months. Amid Israel’s US-abetted genocide in Gaza and military incursions in the region, Trump told Israel’s leader Benjamin Netanyahu in June to “finish the job.”
Netanyahu, who is under indictment by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity, is crowing victorious in his regular talks with Trump, saying: “We will change the Middle East,” further underscoring the sweeping ambitions tied to this phrase.
Trump has since threatened Hamas that there will be “ALL HELL TO PAY” if the Israeli hostages are not released by inauguration day. This is a sign that an aggressive US Middle East policy is already being directed from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
Reports say both Trump and Netanyahu remain in constant communication, ignoring a lame-duck President Joe Biden as he snoozes in the White House.
Trump is clearly endorsing Israel’s ongoing aggressive military offensive in Palestine and beyond in the Middle East, including inside Syria. He favors Israel at all costs, despite his electoral promises to American Muslims to end the war in Gaza.
If he is urging Israel to “finish the job” meaning the continued killing of Palestinians and raze what is left of Gaza to the ground, then Israel is definitely complying. Almost on a daily basis, dozens of Palestinians in refugee camps in Gaza are killed by Israel’s bombs.
Could “finish the job” also mean crossing borders into Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah, Iran’s key paramilitary ally in the region? Well, a fragile ceasefire is in place in Lebanon with Hezbollah, and Iran is considerably weakened.
In comments made to Israeli media in November, Trump advisor and evangelical leader Mike Evans said the directive to “finish the job” included instructions for Israel to attack Iran’s oil facilities and strategic interests.
In return, Israel was promised a peace agreement with the Sunni Arab world, particularly Saudi Arabia, Evans said (more on this later).
Syrian self-rule?
“Finish the job” could prove even more ominous given recent developments in Damascus, which have stirred mixed feelings around the world.
The televised spectacle of elated Syrians inside and outside the country celebrating the end of over 50 years of draconian rule by the Assad regime, suggests the Arab Spring finally came to Syria some 13 years later after a brutal civil war that claimed a horrific 620,000 lives.
Meanwhile, Iran has been significantly weakened by the loss of its two key allies in Damascus and Beirut. The departure of Assad and the assassination of Hasan Nasrallah, the former head of Hezbollah in Beirut, have left Tehran scrambling to maintain its influence in the region.
While Saudi-Iranian relations warmed up in recent months, Riyadh and Damascus are hedging their bets on possible scenarios that might be orchestrated from Washington to remake the Middle East as per Netanyahu’s plans.
Trump’s cabinet
Trump won’t be the only one shaping Middle East policy.
He has thus far nominated a cabinet team consisting of some of the most hardline anti-Arab and anti-Muslim rightwing figures.
His pick of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel, announced just a week after his election, was undoubtedly in reaction to the high monetary support he got from pro-Israel donors.
Huckabee has previously said he does not believe Palestinians have a right to exist as a people. For Secretary of State, Trump has selected Senator Marco Rubio, a staunch pro-Israel hawk. Rubio is on record saying that “Israel has no choice but to eliminate Hamas” in Gaza, echoing the talking points of Israeli military leaders.
Trump’s pick for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, a television presenter with a minor military record, has unabashedly displayed his bile towards Islam. He wears a tattoo with the Crusader war cry “Deus vult!” or “God Wills It,” and supports curbing the presence of Islam and Muslims in Europe and the US.
If confirmed, Hegseth would be the leader of the US military, including of approximately 5,897 active Muslim members whom he would despise for their faith.
Trump has also tapped Stephen Miller, a hardline anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim political advisor during his first term, to serve as White House deputy chief of staff. This is a witch’s brew, to put it mildly.
All this does not augur well for Syria, Palestine, Iraq, Iran and Yemen—all countries caught in the crosshairs of American and Israeli hegemonic interests in the region.
Trump occasionally speaks like an isolationist who dislikes wars. He therefore attacked Republicans for engaging in a futile war in Iraq. Yet he is far from being a dove or cautious in foreign policy.
“Bibi” Netanyahu, now his closest foreign ally, is known to have egged on former President George W. Bush’s administration to invade Iraq in 2003. In 2025, Bibi will likely continue to have Trump’s ear, reminding the new president to “finish the job,” which from the get-go meant only one-thing: to attack Iran and its allies in the region.
With Rubio, Huckabee, Hegseth and Netanyahu at his side, Trump could very well go after Iran’s nuclear facilities or support Israel in doing so.
Saudi Arabia
Trump’s warmest of allies in the Middle East would most likely be Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia.
Crown Prince Mohammed is keen on a proposed US defense pact with Saudi Arabia, part of a normalization deal with Israel, but which is now contingent on a ceasefire in Gaza and with assurances for a clear pathway to Palestinian statehood.
With Netanyahu’s influence over Trump likely to remain dominant, any serious idea of Palestinian statehood appears improbable.
At best, it could result in a token gesture akin to the “bantustans” of apartheid South Africa—limited, fragmented enclaves serving the interests of a select Palestinian elite while leaving the broader population marginalised.
Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, a former advisor to the president who secured a $2 billion investment from a fund led by the Saudi Crown Prince, had already floated the shocking idea of how valuable Gaza waterfront property would be.
Earlier this year, Kushner proposed to move Palestinians out of Gaza to make way for Israeli development, claiming this would allow Israel to then “finish the job.”
It was unclear if he ever contemplated the return of Palestinians to their land, since Kushner incoherently proposed that they be relocated to the Negev desert or to Egypt. These ideas underline the extent to which Trump’s inner circle views Palestinian lives and rights as disposable in pursuit of regional realignment.
What about Iran?
There’s one other country the US might turn its sights on.
Biden has already committed the US to costly two proxy wars on the side of Ukraine and Israel, with billions of dollars in military and other forms of assistance.
The likelihood that Trump would get involved in a war with Iran now is even greater than before, given his disposition and the people he surrounded himself with. Like Israel, the US believes that Iran is weakened, and ripe for regime change. This perception only increases the risk of miscalculation.
Iran, acutely aware of its precarious position, may be considering an accelerated push toward nuclear capability as a means of deterrence.
Under the pretext of thwarting Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the US under Trump egged on by figures like Netanyahu, Huckabee, and Hegseth, might well contemplate military action in Iran.
Trump’s return to the White House could mark a perilous chapter in global history, one fraught with devastating consequences for the Middle East and the world.
*Ebrahim Moosa is the Mirza Family Professor of Islamic Thought & Muslim Societies in the Keough School of Global Affairs, at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana in the United States.
(TRT World)
December 22, 2024
The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of Aequitas Review.
