Many people have been looking at the Ukraine war from many different angles, from Trump’s admiration for Putin’s “savvy” and “brilliant” act of “genius” to the forecasts of the fall of Russia, or of the US, etc. The opinions on the issue can be broadly divided into three categories, (i) support for the US, (ii) support for Russia, and (iii) support for a peaceful diplomatic resolution. The advocates for peace have been demanding for: (i) an immediate ceasefire, (ii) diplomatic resolution, (iii) stopping the abuse of human rights and war crimes, and possibly trying the perpetrators, and (iv) peace talks among the world leaders to find non-confrontational resolutions of conflicts, for which the UN was created in the first place. However, the UN failed time and again in this respect, because of the failures of its member states.
The ongoing wars in the world and the Ukraine war
There are around 40 ongoing wars and conflicts raging in the world today. The US just ended last year its 20-year war from 2001 to 2021 in Afghanistan. The US, along with its allies and NATO, went to war in Afghanistan, the Middle East, and the North African countries for (i) strategic control of the region, (ii) plunder of oil, and (iii) promotion of selling the products of its military-industrial complex throughout the world. In this 20-year war, the US, its allies and NATO destroyed Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen, while 5 million people were killed and many more injured and made homeless.
The Soviet Union also had its war in Afghanistan, and its occupation of Afghanistan for 10 years, between 1979 and 1989, for its strategic objectives, but it failed, and it contributed to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Russia now has plunged into the Ukraine war; it’s not known how it will end. Putin went to the war in Ukraine with two declared objectives: (i) recognition and defense of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent states seceded from Ukraine, and (ii) denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine.
With the war in Ukraine, the world is on the brink of WWIII or a nuclear war. Ukraine wanted to join NATO, which Russia considered an existential threat. Thus, it invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022.
The last time the world was on the brink was during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, when in a reverse situation, the Soviet Union, after a failed US attempt to topple the Cuban government by a group of Cuban exiles in 1961, wanted to establish a military base in Cuba by installing nuclear-armed missiles, 90 miles from the coast of Florida. The US considered it a grave threat to its security. On a face-to-face standoff of the two navies, it gave rise to a threat of a nuclear war between the two superpowers, until in the end, the Soviet Union backed out after a 13-day standoff, and the war was averted.
But this time, in the case of the Ukraine war, after repeated warnings by Russia for more than 8 years, Ukraine, supported by the US, did not back out, and Russia invaded Ukraine. The US and NATO have not joined the conflict militarily for fear of WWIII or a nuclear war, but they have amassed troops and military equipment in the border states of Ukraine and Russia and have been helping Ukraine with large amounts of money and supply of military equipment. Russian nuclear deterrent forces have remained on red alert. It is the 12th day of the invasion as on 7 March 2022, and the results or consequences of the war are still unknown.
The Ukraine war is a consequence of the eastward expansion of NATO, where, especially in the case of its expansion to Ukraine, Russia considered it an existential threat.
Wars in the World and the cause for peace and harmony
In an article of 2003 in the New York Times by Chris Hedges, it was claimed, “Of the past 3,400 years, humans have been entirely at peace for 268 of them, or just 8 percent of recorded history“, and “At least 108 million people were killed in wars in the twentieth century. Estimates for the total number killed in wars throughout all of human history range from 150 million to 1 billion.” Wars bring in death, destruction, injury, homelessness and other untold misery and woes. It’s a dismal and tragic failure of humankind as a whole.
We must accept, however sadly, that war has been a recurrent feature throughout human history. We thus cannot afford to be resigned to it as a peacenik or throw up our arms as an inactive pacifist. If war is imposed, we must uphold just war and just peace, the term “just” needs to be defined in terms of peace, harmony, and rational development of humanity. Of course, “just” is a relative term, and often both sides in a war are at fault, in which cases we strive for a ceasefire with diplomatic resolutions for just peace, as far as possible or practicable. Our quest for peace and harmony must go on with increasingly more endeavors throughout the world.
Geopolitical transformation that precipitated the crisis
The war in Ukraine broke out at a time of a great transformation of a geopolitical era when the hegemony of the West has been declining rapidly, and the East as a power has been rising equally rapidly. The transformation may or may not be smooth, it may have bumpy rides. The West or the East may even, in desperation, start, directly or indirectly, WWIII or a nuclear war, a situation or doctrine, which many have described as MAD, or Mutually Assured Destruction, of both the attacker and the attacked, or even the nuclear annihilation of humanity.
The West tries to retain its hegemony, and, in the process, it has given rise to the case of Ukraine, where NATO tries to strangulate Russia through its eastward expansion including in Ukraine, and Russia perceives NATO’s expansion to Ukraine to be an existential threat. The conflict between an existing power and a rising power has been termed Thucydides Trap, after Greek Historian and general Thucydides of the 5th century BC. US political scientist Allison popularized the term to describe the conflict between the US and China. But what is required is harmonious development throughout the world with peace.
The West rose from European colonialism starting from 1402, which lasted until a couple of decades after WWII, ending in 1945. The next period, since WWII to the present of the Western hegemony has been characterized by many as neo-colonialism or imperialism led by the US. The Western domination is now coming to an end, and the West, far from peace and harmony, has been trying to retain its position through contention and confrontation.
The Cold War that created the present situation in Ukraine
In WWII, the US, Russia and China were allies in the Allied Powers. All three powers played great roles in WWII and made enormous contributions along with other allies, contributing to their victory. The military deaths (not total death of people) suffered by these countries were: Soviet Union 7.5 million, China 2.2 million and US 0.4 million. The WWII ended after the atom bombing of Japan by the US in 1945. But, as the war was over, things changed. The enemies of WWII, Germany, Japan, and Italy became allies of the US, while the allies, Russia, and China, became foes. Yesterday’s foes became today’s friends and vice versa. This is the reason why it is said that, in international relations, there are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests. Very sad!
The Cold War started with the Truman Doctrine in 1947 of containing the Soviet Union, and it lasted until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. It was a contention between the US, Western Europe, and their allies on the one side, and Eastern Europe led by the Soviet Union on the other. It was called the Cold War as there were no direct wars between the two blocs, but there were many proxy wars between them. NATO was formed in 1949, the Soviet Union exploded its first atomic warhead in the same year. China also became independent in 1949.
The Soviet bloc formed the Warsaw Pact in 1955. There was military build ups, arms, and nuclear races between the two blocs. The Soviet Union was militarily involved in East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, etc., while the US was militarily involved in Guatemala, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Korea, Vietnam, etc. Between 1946 and 2000, the US was also involved in regime changes in 81 countries, including Iran, Indonesia, Italy, the Philippines, Japan, Lebanon, etc. The Soviet Union and China had a major split in 1960 which lasted until 1989. On the economic front, the US, Western Europe, and Japan showed dynamic growth, whereas the Soviet bloc lagged. The economic stagnation in the Soviet bloc and many other causes such as corruption, bureaucracy, oligarchy, mismanagement, nationality problems, the Afghan war, and its occupation for 10 years, etc. caused the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, leading to the end of the Cold War.
After dissolution of the Soviet Union, the US and Western Europe had the great opportunity to expand its influence on Eastern Europe. Therefore, NATO expanded fast.
Expansion of NATO to Eastern Europe and roots of Ukraine crisis.
Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic joined NATO in 1999 despite opposition from Russia. Seven Central and Eastern European countries then followed suit. These were Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. In 2009, Albania and Croatia joined. Montenegro joined in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2020.
Ukraine expressed its membership aspirations to NATO in 2008, but Putin opposed it. The plan was shelved when Yanukovych was elected President in 2010, wanting Ukraine to be non-aligned. In 2014, Yanukovych fled Ukraine amid the Euromaidan uprising. The new government in 2014 renounced Ukraine’s non-aligned status and made joining NATO a priority. In 2018, the Ukrainian parliament amended the constitution for accession of the country to the EU and NATO. In 2020, President Zelensky started arrangements for Ukraine to join NATO. In April 2021, Russia started build-up of army near Ukraine border, and the Russian army entered Ukraine on 24 February 2022.
The Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004 was engineered by the US. The report in the Guardian, UK, titled, US campaign behind the turmoil in Kiev, 26 November 2004, stated how it was done, “Funded and organized by the US government, deploying US consultancies, pollsters, diplomats, the two big American parties and US non-government organizations . .” It can be assumed that similar methods were applied to engineer the Euromaidan uprising in 2014 to oust Yanukovych.
The question of the legality of Ukraine war
It would be a good case to oppose Russia in the Ukraine war on the question of legality, i.e. military operation in Ukraine without sanction by the UN. However, hadn’t the US and its allies attacked Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003, etc., illegally, as Russia and its allies occupied Afghanistan between 1979 and 1989 illegally on the pretext of Afghan-Soviet treaty? So, on the question of legality, neither the US and its allies, nor Russia and its allies stand on any moral high ground. Meanwhile, the UN has been reduced to a powerless talking shop in these cases, and both the US and Russia are UNSC members with veto powers.
Sabre rattling on both sides must stop
While Russia has continued its military operation in Ukraine, the US and NATO have prepared for defensive or offensive wars. As mentioned above, Russia has put its nuclear deterrent forces on red alert, and NATO has mobilized troops and military equipment at the bordering states of Russia and Ukraine. The US and NATO have been providing money and military equipment to Ukraine. Although they declared they wouldn’t send troops to Ukraine for fear of WWIII or a nuclear war, the VOA reported on 5 March 2022 that 3 thousand volunteers are being organized for the Ukraine war, and another 16 thousand volunteers are being readied for an international battalion or legion to “help resist Russia’s invading forces”. These are ominous. Our appeal to both sides is to end the war immediately and start peace talks with international delegates for peaceful political resolutions.
The US sanctions have limited effect
The US imposed wide ranging sanctions on Russia in 2014. Russia responded with sanctions on the US and some of its allies. Russia incurred heavy losses, and other countries also incurred losses. The US imposed sanctions again in 2018, causing heavy losses to Russia. Sanctions have again been imposed now in 2022. It is difficult to see the Russian economy collapsing because of sanctions. These sanctions will incur losses to many countries, including may be the US. Also, sanctions on Russia have pushed up the prices of oil and gas in the world, causing inflation.
Some countries may face food scarcity as they are dependent on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. The US has been involved in many wars in the world since WWII, but it did not face any sanctions, which have limited effects. In the past, the US sanctioned Cuba, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, etc. The world is economically connected, and if one country is economically sanctioned, it also has its effects on other countries.
We need cooperation and competition, not contention and confrontation
The world has seen enough of death, destruction and untold misery brought about by wars throughout the world. It is time to promote cooperation and peaceful competition between the states and oppose disastrous contention and confrontation. Instead of an arms race and a nuclear race, we should compete in taking up projects in various countries to alleviate hunger and poverty and we should compete in building schools, homes, hospitals, and developing agriculture and industry, etc. That would be a new dawn for the world, a new rational world order, where we wouldn’t say, “you are either with us or against us.” We would take humanity as one family or one state.
We end the present discussion by paying our tribute to the demonstrators for peace. Four thousand demonstrators have been arrested in Russia for demonstrating against the Ukraine war. Similarly, there were many peace lovers throughout the world who, in the past, demonstrated against the Vietnam war, Iraq war, the Palestine genocide, etc. Our tributes to them all.
*The writer is a London-based political analyst, commentator and a former activist and columnist constantly campaigning for Freedom and Democracy, Justice, Human Rights and Harmonious Development in Bangladesh. He appeared many times on Bengali TV talk shows in London speaking on the political affairs of Bangladesh. A retired computer consultant with a master’s degree in Mathematics, he left his PhD studies in the UK to travel to Kolkata, India, in 1971 to join the Independence War of Bangladesh.
March 8, 2022
The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of Aequitas Review.
