The fundamental premise of the famous thesis of Samuel Huntington is that the next clash of civilizations will occur between the Christian West and Confucian China. The renowned and controversial American scholar provides a dramatic futuristic model of an alliance between Islam and Confucianism against the so-called Western civilization in his book, The Clash of Civilizations and the remaking of the World Order. Huntington sees Hindu India as a counterweight to China in South Asia and an effective ally of the West. He writes, “Chinese power is expanding at the moment; India’s power could grow substantially in the early twenty-first century. ‘The underlying power rivalry between the two Asian giants, and their self-images as natural great powers and centers of civilization and culture’, one analyst has observed, ‘will continue to drive them to support different countries and causes’. India will strive to emerge, not only as an independent power center in the multipolar world, but as a counterweight to Chinese power and influence” (Huntington, P. S., 1996, p: 244). Huntington further predicts, “the expansion of Indian power in Southern Asia cannot harm U.S. interests and could serve them” (p: 244). Eminent Indian academic Raja Mohan proudly announces that India is now on the verge of becoming a great power and an ally to the West. In the article published in Foreign Affairs in 2006, echoing Huntington, he states, “as it rises, India has the potential to become a leading member of the ‘political West’ and to play a key role in the great political struggles of the next decades”.
Many among the Washington policymakers enthusiastically share the above assessments and would rather support an assertive and robust Indian role in the region. There is a clear bipartisan consensus in US politics to establish India as the regional hegemon and strategic ally in South Asia.
Post-9/11, the US-India relationship appears to have cemented further to counter so-called Islamic terrorism and Chinese threat. Since then, not only has the US publicly declared India as its strategic ally in South Asia, the two countries have also signed multiple military treaties. Encouraged by the Washington establishment, India started to view the region as its exclusive domain and has been pursuing a rather dangerously aggressive policy to establish hegemonic control over all her neighbors. The outcome of the Indian policy is however, so far mixed.
Bhutan has never gained full independence and remained under Delhi’s effective control since 1947. Sri Lanka refused to succumb and successfully maintained sovereignty by crushing decades-long, India-supported violent secessionist movements of minority Tamil Hindus. India failed to repeat its 1971 success of vivisection of Pakistan in Sri Lanka. The Maldives recently tilted towards India after an intense and bitter power struggle between pro-India and pro-China factions. Although the US-installed government in Afghanistan has been with India since 2001, it is under constant threat from the Taliban which controls the majority of the provinces in the country.
The Taliban regime was ousted from state power but never vanquished. After the expected withdrawal of NATO occupying forces from Kabul by the end of 2020, the present puppet regime in Afghanistan may quickly fall resulting in an evaporation of Indian influence there. Nepal freed itself from Indian clutches after more than half a century in the wake of strong nationalist movements with active support from China. The present government in Kathmandu is matching Pakistan with its anti-Indian rhetoric. India was successful in installing a pro-Indian puppet government in Bangladesh with Western support in 2009. Until 2018, Dhaka faithfully obeyed all the instructions of Delhi. However, China is in the process of gradually penetrating into Bangladesh by the successful use of economic diplomacy. Beijing appears to be determined to create space in a country dubbed by many as the undeclared colony of India. On the western front, nuclear power Pakistan remained as an effective challenger to the Indian hegemony. Declared Indian policy to isolate Pakistan has not only miserably failed, but practically backfired.
During the period of US-India bonhomie, China almost silently made spectacular inroads into South Asian geopolitics. Pakistan has been China’s all weather friend since late 1960’s. The two countries are now economically more closely linked through CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) connecting Xinjiang with Balochistan aka modern day Silk Road. The project is also militarily strategic as it encircles Kashmir along the Himalayan mountain range, putting enormous pressure on Indian defense.
China has been making huge investments in Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives and Bangladesh since the beginning of the current century. Among the said four countries, Sri Lanka has been maintaining a policy of equidistant. China has successfully taken Nepal on its side while losing Maldives to India in the bargain, and in the case of Bangladesh, the situation has started to evolve lately. China is hoping to lure away Sheikh Hasina, the current fascist prime minister of Bangladesh by pumping more investment, knowing fully well that she is essentially a pawn of Delhi. Both the Indian and Bangladesh economies are badly hit by covid-19. In addition, rampant corruption by the ruling coterie is taking a heavy toll on the macro economy of Bangladesh. Under the circumstances, India would not be able to provide economic assistance to her client in Dhaka in any substantial and meaningful way. Bangladesh has already borrowed heavily from all the multilateral institutions. The budget for the fiscal year 2020-2021 is entirely based on domestic and international borrowings. In would be difficult for Sheikh Hasina to further borrow from these institutions. She badly needs Chinese money to survive. It is to be seen how China uses its leverage in shaping the policy of Bangladesh government regarding its relationship with India.
Once the dominant player in Bangladesh politics, post the 2007 military coup in the country, the US gradually leased out its interest to Delhi, possibly as a price for Indian friendship. To their chagrin, the establishment in Washington may now feel that India has mismanaged its relationship with Bangladesh badly. If social media is any indicator, 80 percent of the people of Bangladesh bitterly resent India for blatant exploitation and domination in their domestic politics. They also blame the US for the imposition of a fascist and corrupt ruler by manipulating the 2008 election.
After coming to power, Sheikh Hasina has destroyed every single institution in the country, including the judiciary and the election commission. She has made any peaceful transition of power in Bangladesh rather impossible. Interestingly, Sheikh Hasina also took a gamble by inviting Chinese investment while simultaneously keeping a close political relationship with India. Apparently, an annoyed Delhi is forced to allow the courtship of Sheikh Hasina with Beijing because of its own inability to meet her financial requirement. She also dared to completely ignore the US in all matters with the assumption that her anti-Islamist image is enough to curry favor in all the Islamophobic western capitals. Furthermore, the US bilateral contribution to Bangladesh’s economy has been gradually reduced to insignificance. So far, this strategy of the most ruthless lady dictator in the contemporary world has served her well. However, a couple of independent variables would possibly determine the final course of politics in Bangladesh in particular and in South Asia in general.
Firstly, if the Sino-India armed conflict further intensifies, then Hasina would be compelled to take a side. That will be a nightmare scenario for her. And secondly, if Joe Biden is able to keep his current momentum and finally defeats Donald Trump in the November election, the new administration would definitely review the US policy in South Asia and may decide to regain the lost American influence in Bangladesh, a country of 170 million, mostly Sunni Muslims. If that happens, we may witness a three-party competition among US, China and India. In all probability, 2021 is going to be a defining year for the region.
*The author is a renowned author and editor of a national daily in Bangladesh. He has written more than ten books and a regular contributor to various distinguished journals. He is a former energy advisor to the government of Bangladesh. He is the foremost voice against the current autocratic regime in Bangladesh.
