The Taiwan issue has become an increasingly dangerous focal point of tension and a headache for the USA and its allies. These tensions and headache, to a great extent, are intentionally created and self-inflicted. Ironically, the headache seems more severe in New Delhi and Canberra than in Washington.
The other day, Brahma Chellaney, an Indian strategic analyst wrote a syndicated article urging the international community, particularly linked to the US, to “save” Taiwan from the Chinese “threat”. He is connected to the Delhi-based “think tank” , The Center for Policy Research, whose ties with the government are very close. Many of his arguments are misleading and factually incorrect. He wrote that Taiwan became part of China only in 1887. But actually, Taiwan was brought under the control of Zheng Chenggong, a Ming loyalist, in 1662. It was formally incorporated into China by the Qing dynasty in 1683. Without going into further details, it can be said that if such arguments are accepted, India itself might be divided into several independent states. It could happen to many other countries, too.
The main issue here is if China is a single country, or the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan are two separate sovereign states. The crux of the problem lies in its interpretation. However, as per the One China Policy, the USA has categorically recognized China´’s (PRC) position that there is only one China and Taiwan is not an independent state. When Washington acknowledged it, only then Beijing agreed to establish diplomatic relations with Washington. It was a pre-condition from the Peoples Republic of China that Washington must derecognize the Taipei government and sever formal diplomatic ties with it.
In 1979, the US closed its Taipei embassy and established formal diplomatic ties with Beijing under President Jimmy Carter. It is the official position of the People`’s Republic of China that if any country wants to establish diplomatic relations with it, that country cannot maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan. When the People`’s Republic of China (PRC) became a member of the United Nations in 1971, Taiwan (ROC) had to be ousted from the world body. Washington tried to retain Taipei´’s seat in the world body. But the proposal was defeated. Chiang Kai-Shek could not be saved. There are now 193 states which are members of the UN. But only 15 states officially recognize Taiwan as an independent state. The total population of these 15 countries is less than 40 million, whereas the total population of the world is more than 7.8 billion.
Though the US established diplomatic relations in 1979, the process started much earlier. Richard Nixon made it clear in the late 60´’s that the People´’s Republic of China could not be kept isolated. He understood it was not in the best interest of the US, either. They foresaw the potential economic powerhouse in the PRC and the economic benefits of establishing diplomatic relations with Beijing. Henry Kissinger´’s secret visit to China via Pakistan in 1971 paved the way for the following year´’s visit of President Richard Nixon to Beijing, which led to the Mao Zedong-Nixon and Zhou Enlai -Nixon meetings.
After that, it was only a formality and procedural matter to establish diplomatic relations, though it took long 7 years. The US established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China for her own economic interest. The People´’s Republic of China is the largest trading partner of the US, whose largest import comes from China and 3rd. largest export goes to this country. Although the US has a big trade deficit with China, it cannot reduce the volume considerably. The fruits of the cheap Chinese products benefit all Americans, particularly the common people. It has been calculated that the trade war will not be beneficial for either country.
The question is, while the US has diplomatic relations only with PRC and not with ROC, why are they now trying to mobilize their forces in favor of Taipei against mainland China? The simple answer is the present geo-political situation which even a layman understands. The US is afraid of China´’s rapid and continuous emergence as an economic and military superpower. No superpower had accepted a rival without any fight or challenge. The US is no exception. It wants to contain China as long as possible and as much as possible.
The US has one point in its favor. Though it had to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan, it has not abandoned her altogether. When it established diplomatic relations with the PRC, it had at the same time passed a special Act, known as The Taiwan Relations Act, which guarantees different forms of support for the island. The Act says that the US must help Taiwan defend itself and under the cover of this Act, the US continues to sell arms to Taiwan. The US arms traders like to see a continued and extended conflict between China on one hand and the US and Taiwan on other.
This is where the recent nuclear submarine deal between Australia, the US and the UK known as the AUKUS Defense Pact plays a role. It is a pact worth $90 billion. To acquire this arms deal, the three countries risked their relations with France because it replaced Australia´’s naval fleet modernization pact worth billions of dollars made between France and Australia. Not surprising. Canberra, particularly under the Conservative (Liberal) governments has always blindly served the interests of Washington.
Though the US has accepted the One China Policy which implies that mainland China and Taiwan island belong to one single state, it has not committed to any concrete proposal how the reunification will take place. China has repeatedly threatened that it will use military force if Taiwan formally declares independence. Taiwan and her allies are afraid that by 2025, China might acquire the needed military capacity that will allow it to take the island by force. It is one of the reasons for hectic military buildups by them.
Washington and its allies in the region have become so afraid of Chinese military might that beside AUKUS (Australia-United Kingdom-USA), it has formed another alliance, named QUAD, comprising of the US, Australia, Japan and India. The QUAD is an Indo-Pacific alliance. Japan joined the QUAD because of its historical animosity with China. Japan once dominated the region. It invaded and plundered China several times. It ruled over Taiwan as a colony for a long period. Now China has overtaken Taiwan both economically and militarily. Japan feels increasingly threatened by China but Tokyo cannot face Beijing alone. That is why it needs Washington. But neither of them can forget the bitter memory of the Second World War. They are cautious about each other.
India badly needs the US to face China. And again, its stakes are very high with China. No one wants to eliminate Beijing. The US’s largest trading partner is China. Australia`’s biggest trading partner is also China. Though China is the second largest trading partner (as of 2019-2020) of India, it is expected to be the largest partner within a very short time. So, no one can take any gambling risk to totally jeopardize their relations with China.
Though only 15 countries recognize Taiwan as a state, Taipei has established economic and cultural ties with many other countries. During the previous BNP government in Bangladesh, an attempt was made in this regard. It harmed the relations between the two countries. The BNP government, to a considerable extent, lost its credentials. The Awami League government must keep this in mind. It has already antagonized China by canceling the Sonadia Deep Sea Project.
At the same time, the unjust and apparently “expansionist” attitude of China cannot be entertained. It has no right to unilaterally determine maritime boundaries which are disputed. It must abide by the judgement of the relevant international court. In 2015, an arbitral tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration ( PCA ) in the Hague delivered the judgement on maritime dispute between the Philippines and China. The five-judge tribunal issued an unanimous decision in favor of the Philippines on the overwhelming majority of the claims it made against China. Though the ruling is final and binding, China refused to abide by it. Since the court has no enforcement mechanism, Beijing is taking its advantage.
However, all major powers have not expressed their support to the Tribunal´’s ruling. Even the UN and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) said that it was not under their jurisdiction. It may be noted that the PCA and the ICJ are separate and independent bodies. The only ray of hope is that President Xi Jinping has said that China is committed to resolving the issue amicably with the Philippines.
It is not only the Philippines with whom China has a maritime dispute. It has disputes with Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Bhutan and of course, with India. Since most of these states except India and Bhutan, are Islandic in nature, so their conflicts with China are centered on maritime borders. Some disputes are bilateral, but some are multinational.
The PRC, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei – all these countries are located around Spratly Island which is rich not only in oil and gas reserves but also as a fishing ground. Here, the dispute is multilateral. It is noteworthy that the PRC was the main ally of Vietnam during its war with the US. China’s help was a crucial factor in Vietnam’s victory over the superpower. Unfortunately, now relations between Vietnam and China are not that close. It deteriorated when Vietnam invaded and deposed the Chinese backed Khmer Rouge govt of Cambodia. In retaliation, the Chinese forces entered northern Vietnam. After a short period, they withdrew. They wanted to “teach a lesson”.
It may be mentioned that China occupied a vast Indian territory during the war between the two countries in 1962. Later, it withdrew from most of the occupied area, and it did so to just “teach a lesson” to India.
China´’s conflicts with its neighbors may be defined as big power/regional powers´ hegemonistic syndrome. The East European countries did not have normal relations with Moscow during the Soviet period. They were like satellite states of the Soviet Union. Neither do they have close relations with many of its present neighbors. The regional super-power India´’s relations with most of her neighbors cannot be described as very friendly. The US is the most powerful nation in the world and it has adverse relations with many more countries. To have a friendly world order, this syndrome should be dealt with seriously.
*The writer is a senior Bangladeshi journalist now living in Sweden.
October 28, 2021
The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of Aequitas Review.
