Since last week, Myanmar is continuously violating Bangladesh’s air space and land border. Within a fortnight, the country has violated Bangladesh’s air space and sovereignty at least five times, dropped bombs in Bangladesh territory, dropped mortar shells in a refugee camp in no man’s land that killed one refugee, and is putting landmines on the border area. The use of landmines in border areas during peacetime is a violation of international law.
This is not the only border that Myanmar is violating. It also violates Thailand’s airspace and border as a recurring event. Myanmar also violated Bangladesh’s border 17 times during the 2017 Rohingya exodus.
Apart from violating territorial sovereignty, Myanmar is accused of gross violations of human rights within its territory. The latest bombing in Rakhine state has produced a new wave of refugees. Approximately 589 ethnic people from Rakhine have taken refuge in Mizoram, India while many Rohingya families are looking for ways to come to Bangladesh.
Within itself, Myanmar has become a rogue state with a multi-ethnic civil war and a military regime in power that continuously violates human rights by crushing its opponents. Despite the gross violations of human rights and laws, how is Myanmar getting away with violating international law and human rights every time? To look for the answer to this question, we need to look at how the Junta regime is capitalizing on its domestic conflict and geostrategic significance to bypass justice.
Myanmar: A Rogue State and Regional Source of Threat
Ethnic conflict and the struggle for autonomy have transformed Myanmar into a failed union among multi-ethnic communities. Almost all states have ethnic separatist movements and armed wings that challenge the central authority. The Arakan Army in Rakhine, Kachin Independence Army in Kachin, and Wa Army in Wa State are some of the important Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAO) in Myanmar.
Besides, the Military enjoyed power for a long time, even during the democracy era where, through a power-sharing model, it enjoyed state powers. As a result, the Military, known as Tatmadaw or Junta, deals with the EAOs very harshly. Such harsh and destructive methods often lead to displacing vulnerable communities. In 2017, Myanmar even followed a genocidal method to oust the Rohingya community through a “clearance operation” in Rakhine.
However, the EAOs do not have strong funding options. So, they rely on controlling various legal and illegal trades to keep them alive. The EAOs in bordering states also operate as transnational entities that seek safe havens in the porous borderlands to avoid getting caught or suffering heavy casualties at the hands of the Junta.
The February Coup and following political turmoil further weakened Myanmar’s institutions. Pro-democracy fronts took arms against the Junta and now the whole country is opposing its very own military. In return, the military is using brute force to meet its opponents and increased instability to a new extent. The aftermath of the coup also triggered a new refugee crisis in its neighboring countries. The latest war-like situation in Rakhine is also producing refugees.
All these factors put together made Myanmar a regional source of a wide range of threats such as drugs, refugee crises, porous borderland due to the presence of armed gangs and severe human rights violations. Myanmar’s wide range of threats is affecting the whole region. Thailand, Bangladesh, India, and many other ASEAN countries are now hosting refugees. The plights of the Rohingya and the genocidal intent against them are widely known. Ethnic Rakhines are also forced to migrate from time to time.
Apart from refugees, Myanmar is also the largest source of illegal drugs for Bangladesh. Thailand is also a victim of this drug problem. Besides drugs, the armed conflict has also resulted in transnational entities in Myanmar’s borderland.
However, after becoming such a major source of regional threats, and continuously violating international laws, Myanmar is getting away without harsher punishments. It is because the Junta regime is capitalizing on the geostrategic significance and great powers are prioritizing their geopolitical interests over human rights, peace, and stability.
Myanmar’s Geostrategic Significance and Great Powers’ Geopolitical Calculation
Myanmar’s location brings a unique strategic significance to the country. It has a border with both India and China- two regional powerhouses. It also has vast access to the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea in the Indian Ocean. As Myanmar has direct access to the sea and shares a direct border with China, Myanmar is strategically important for China as it can provide access to the Indian Ocean without relying solely upon the Malacca strait.
In the context of the Indo-Pacific Strategy and QUAD-China rivalry, Myanmar has become very crucial for China.
On the other hand, Rakhine state shares a border with Northeastern India, an insurgency-prone region. As India wants relatively more stability in its Northeastern parts, it needs Myanmar by its side so that arms and dark money do not pour in through those borders. Hence, India remains silent even after receiving refugees from time to time. It is because of the greater relative gain that India yields from Myanmar.
The West also wants Myanmar on its side to counter China. As a result, even though the West verbally supports the People’s Democratic Force (PDF) and imposes sanctions, it is yet to take any mentionable actions against the aggressor.
The Junta regime is very smart in understanding its geostrategic significance to all parties. Hence, it uses the significance that makes the great powers take a more lenient role. Thus, Myanmar gets away every time.
Myanmar got away with capitalizing on the members’ geopolitical differences as the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) failed to bring any condemning resolutions against it during the February coup in 2021.
But the world community should not give Myanmar a free pass. The Junta is becoming more brutal than ever in crushing its opponents as it has a confidence boost due to minimal international attention. Moreover, Myanmar’s continuous violation of international law and human rights standards will serve as an example and inspiration for future perpetrators. Giving Myanmar a pass also weakens the core values of the Westphalian order.
However, punitive inclusion of the whole country is not what this article is advocating for. Punitive inclusion would only make things worse. Instead, the international community and great powers need to increase their attention to bring the perpetrators to justice and uphold democracy in Myanmar.
The most viable solution to Myanmar’s failed union is to create a confederation. But due to sharp differences among the ethnic communities, it is still a distant dream. The international community should play a crucial role in mediating between ethnicities and transforming Myanmar from a rogue state into a sound confederation of a multi-ethnic democracy.
The United Nations General Assembly, which ended on September 23 could have been the first forum to address Myanmar’s Rogue activity. But for that, great powers would have to think beyond geopolitical calculations.
*The writer is a doctoral researcher at the University of Groningen, The Netherlands.
September 27. 2022
The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of Aequitas Review.
