Since the military Junta, the Tatmadaw, took control of Myanmar in February of 2021, there have been large-scale demonstrations, armed resistance and mass killings. As the fighting between military and opposition forces intensified, the security situation within Myanmar and its bordering states is deteriorating rapidly. The recent conflict between the military and the Arakan Army (AA) in Northern Rakhine resulted in the violation of Bangladesh’s airspace and territorial sovereignty by firing mortar shells on September 18, 2022. Myanmar’s ambassador blamed the AA for this attack. This has therefore raised serious questions about whether the junta regime is failing to establish effective control over its territory. If that is the case, is Myanmar emerging as source of security threat to its neighbors?
To understand this, let’s take a closer look into Myanmar’s internal security situation and its implications to its neighboring states in South and the Southeast Asian region.
Myanmar: A Failed Union?
Since its independence in 1948, Myanmar has been suffering with a repressive military rule and conflict among ethnic minority groups. As Myanmar is made up of 135 ethnic groups, ethnicity and conflicts are deeply linked in this land, creating a vicious cycle of violence and making it the longest running civil conflict in the world.
Though the transition from military to democratic reforms had started in 2011, the military had a strong control over the state power as it constituted 25% of the seats in the Myanmar parliament. The Tatmadaw has always seen the ethnic minority groups as a threat to the unity and stability of the country and engaged in constant warfare with ethnic armed groups. Even in 2017, Myanmar’s Buddhist majority, along with the Tatmadaw, carried out a genocide against the Rohingya community in the Rakhine state of Myanmar.
The hope for a democratic process was completely shattered when the military seized power in Myanmar in February 2021. The violence in Myanmar has now entered into a new chapter, as the coup d’état and political turmoil weakened Myanmar’s existing institutions, making it a failed union.
The military Junta is now facing fierce opposition from ethnic armed organizations which were fighting for autonomy even before the coup. The opposition is also coming from a pro-democratic front which later transformed into an armed resistance in the face of the military’s brutal crackdown on opposition forces and protesters.
A shadow government, the National Unity Government (NUG) has been formed to resist the Junta government. It has also established an anti-coup resistance movement named the People Defense Force (PDF) which mobilizes fighting forces across the country.
The Junta’s failure to consolidate its control over large areas of the country has also led to the Ethnic Armed Forces Organizations (EAOs) to forge their alliances to counter the Junta. Recently, leaders of Myanmar’s seven most powerful ethnic armed organizations, including the Arakan Army, met in Wa State’s Panghsang, the headquarters of the United Wa State Army (UWSA) to booster their alliance. Though all the groups aren’t actively fighting for overthrowing the regime or in support of the objective of PDF, some EAOs are providing military training and other forms of support to the anti-coup resistance.
The military is now deliberately targeting civilian populations defining it as the enemy. The Junta is using fighter jets and attacking helicopters and heavy artillery to shell civilian populations. The villages and towns which have perceived links to opposition groups are being burned to the ground by the security forces. Since the coup in February 2021, over 21,000 people have been killed by the security forces, nearly 15,000 have been arrested and more than 10,000 people have been detained.
This indiscriminate violence against the country’s civilians has diminished the already depleted popular support for the Junta, pushing the country to the verge of a civil war.
A Potential Regional Destabilizer
As the Tatmadaw’s tactics has grown more violent in the face of resistance, the internal conflicts between the Myanmar military and its own people is posing a grave threat to the regional stability.
In a recent clash between the Military and the Arakan Army in Northern Rakhine and Chin states, Myanmar fired three mortar shells inside the Bangladesh territory on September 16 in the Tambru border of Naikhyanchari in Bandarban, which left a young man dead and wounded six others. Myanmar also fired at least two mortal shells 120 meters inside Bangladesh in the Tambru border on September 3. It fired two more mortar shells inside Bangladesh on August 20 and 28.
When Bangladesh summoned the Myanmar ambassador, Aung Kyaw Moe for the fourth time in less than a month for the violation of international law, he blamed the Arakan Army for landing shells and bullets in Bangladesh. In the face of continuous shelling and firing of bullets into Bangladesh territory from the Myanmar borders, Bangladesh is considering the evacuation of 300 families from Gumdhum union under Naikhongchhari in Bandarban. Apart from Bangladesh, Myanmar is also violating the territorial sovereignty of Thailand.
The security situation within Myanmar is not only creating tensions among bordering states but also fueling a further refugee influx to its neighboring countries. Since the military seized power in 2021, at least 1.3 million people have been forcibly displaced to escape attacks by the military. Many refugees are taking shelter in the neighboring countries such as India, China, Thailand and Bangladesh. The Indian state of Mizoram has witnessed the most significant rise in refugee influx with nearly 30,000 Myanmar nationals who have taken shelter there.
Despite strict monitoring in its border areas, Bangladesh is also experiencing a limited refugee influx. Since September 10, at least 10-15 Rohingyas have taken shelter in Kutupalong and Balukhali shelter camps in Cox’s Bazar. Earlier, another 2,500 people had crossed into Thailand from Myanmar to escape fighting between the Myanmar troops and rebels in the eastern state of Karen.
Beside border tensions and crossovers, the transnational criminal activities in the Myanmar border is a major source of concern for the regional states. Since the ethnic rebel groups in Myanmar rely on illicit drug trading and other transnational crimes for their funding, it poses serious threat to its neighboring countries. The Thai police have reported a significant increase in drug related crimes in Thai-Myanmar border. Earlier this week, Thailand arrested Junta-linked businessmen suspected of drug trafficking. Chinese security force have also arrested people illegally crossing the Myanmar-China border into criminal hubs in Kakong, Mongla and War. Besides, Myanmar is also the largest source of drugs into Bangladesh.
With the Myanmar military rapidly losing its strength and control over the country, the escalating violence between the Junta and the ethnic rebel groups has put the country on the verge of a full blown civil war. The continuous violation of its bordering states’ sovereignty in recent weeks, renewed refugee crossover in neighboring countries along with transnational criminal activities in the bordering areas have, therefore, made Myanmar as a regional source of security threat to its neighbors in the wider South and Southeast Asian region.
*The writer is an independent analyst. She has degrees in International Relations and Security Studies from The University of Dhaka, Bangladesh.
October 4, 2022
The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of Aequitas Review.
