The next general election in Bangladesh is knocking at the door. People are not yet sure if India and other influential external powers will again join the present regime in disenfranchising most citizens from their inherent right to vote in the election. It is an established fact that they have been deprived of voting rights since 2014. And it was possible to a great extent because those countries colluded with the regime.
In 2014, it is particularly India that helped the government to hold the non-participatory election without voter turnout. The largest opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party or the BNP rightly apprehended that without the caretaker government, a free and fair election was impossible in Bangladesh.
This system of a caretaker government, which guaranteed fair elections in Bangladesh, was annulled by the incumbent regime before the 2014 election so that it could come to power through vote rigging. According to the informed circle, in the beginning, the regime wanted to maintain the caretaker government system during the election period for two more terms. But according to confidential survey reports, India advised the then-Hasina regime to abolish the system outright, otherwise the opposition led by the BNP would come to power. It is a known fact that India prefers the Awami League to the BNP because the Awami League is considered a limitless pro-Indian party that can sacrifice vital national interests to India to stay in power with the help of New Delhi. All witnessed how the then-Indian Foreign Secretary Sujata Singh openly interfered in the 2014 election. It was a flagrant violation of minimum diplomatic norms practiced in civilized countries. The US, the patron of India for its geopolitical diplomatic interests, joined New Delhi in installing once again a Delhi-allegiant regime in Dhaka.
The 2018 election was more farcical. The regime and international players could convince/allure the BNP, the main opposition party, to participate in the election. They promised a fair and free election. But what a travesty! The machinery of the regime filled most of the ballot boxes on the previous night of the election date! For the first time, the world witnessed such a mockery. This theater could be staged, and the regime could get away with it because this time, even the People’s Republic of China and Russia joined India and the US in rescuing the regime. The spineless EU followed the US. The Hasina administration took advantage of the unique politico-strategic situation of the region.
However, they did not see or perhaps ignored the fact that in the process, they made Bangladesh a pawn to these external forces. China found a safe haven in Bangladesh’s economy, Russia could impose the big white elephant i.e., the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant in Bangladesh. India’s exploitation, as expected, remained unabated.
The regime thought it could satisfy mutually opposing countries any way it wishes and that it can use one against the other. In reality, this miscalculation made a mess. Now the US has said it will no longer see Bangladesh through New Delhi’s prism. The US and China are engaged in quarrels and issuing contradictory statements regarding the ensuing general election in Bangladesh. It is a disgrace for Bangladesh. The regime can try to come out of this mess and remain in power but in that case, it must sacrifice national interests even further. The incumbent clique is more desperate to hang on to power since they are afraid that they have not left enough room for a safe exit if they are voted out.
The 2018 election has proven one thing for certain: that without a caretaker government, no fair election is possible under present circumstances. The clique in power plays the card of constitutionality. They say the caretaker government system for the election period is unconstitutional. What a U-turn! It is the Awami League and its allies who forced the then BNP government to introduce the caretaker system by amending the constitution in 1990. They annulled this system when they foresaw that they cannot win the election if it remains in place. They used the court, particularly the then Chief Justice Khairul Huq, considered a disgrace to the nation, for the annulment of the system.
But the constitution can again be amended, and the caretaker system can be reintroduced with some adjustments. The incumbent regime has a three-fourths majority in the Parliament, secured through rigging, and they can amend the constitution easily. In case of necessity, it can be referred to the Supreme Court for revision. If major political parties have a broad consensus on reintroducing the caretaker government system to hold free and fair elections, the judiciary will not be an impediment. The question is will the regime hold a fair election under a caretaker system?
No one wants the intervention of other countries in the internal political affairs of our country. But the regime has created the scope for the international community to express their concerns at our political impasse. Now the world is more interdependent. The outside world reacts when injustice occurs and human rights are violated, and public life is endangered in a country, be it Palestine, Myanmar, Cambodia, North Korea, or any other country. Even the US reacted strongly when the “butcher” of Gujarat patronized a riot that killed thousands of Muslims in India. Yes, they do not express their concern when elections are held in India. Because India has guaranteed a free and fair election system.
The irony of the fact is that the big powers interfere or react in other countries’ affairs keeping in mind their own interests. It has become evident the PRC and Russia have taken sides with the present fascist Awami League regime. In other words, they oppose the vast majority of people who aspire to re-establish democracy in the country through a free and fair election. On the other hand, the US and the EU have taken a stand conducive to a rigged-free election where all parties will have a level playing field.
What the US does in other countries or did in Bangladesh in the past might be ignored now. Now people of Bangladesh are desperate to have a fair election. They are not considering the geopolitical maneuverings of the regional or superpowers. Their only concern is the ensuing election.
One country’s political situation is the equilibrium of different opposing forces. Among external forces, India, the US, China, the EU, Russia, and the Islamic countries as a group get the most weightage. The US may be the most powerful country in the world, but due to its geographical location and some other factors, India enjoys the most advantageous position in Bangladesh.
The present regime could continue in power for so long mainly due to India’s advantageous position in Bangladeshi politics where it continuously patronizes the ruling regime. Hitherto, Washington thumbed up most of Delhi’s decisions on Bangladesh. But now the status quo has changed. Washington no longer relies on New Delhi. India is very much aware of how thin support the BAL enjoys among Bangladeshi people.
Notwithstanding all these facts, New Delhi can try to salvage its allegiant regime in Dhaka with all sorts of unfair means. In that case, the anti-Indian feeling that has been created in Bangladesh due to India’s anti-Bangladeshi attitude and activities will intensify further. India’s plea that the BNP or other sovereignty-loving parties of Bangladesh are naturally anti-Indian is unfounded. No Bangladeshi political party can maintain or implement an antagonistic policy towards India. It is suicidal not only militarily, but also economically. A patriotic Bangladeshi political party will not sacrifice the just and basic interests of the country. It does not mean they are anti-Indians. India must understand that it can get undue economic and political advantages from Bangladesh, in other words, can exploit this country of 180 million people through a puppet administration in Dhaka. In that case, it will antagonize a whole nation which, in the long run, might not be good for her.
Or it can accept a properly elected government in Bangladesh and maintain normal relations with it where the legitimate rights of both countries will be maintained and fostered.
As a much bigger country, the more responsibility lies with India.
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*Anisur Rahman is a senior Bangladeshi journalist now living in Sweden He has had a long journalistic career since 1969. He is the author of the book entitled A Political History of the Sub-Continent – Partition of India.
August 2, 2023
The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of Aequitas Review.
