After Donald Lu’s much talked-about visit to Bangladesh, a lull has eclipsed the country’s political horizon about this question. No one from either side of the political aisle wants to speak about the aftermath or possible fallout out of this diplomatic maneuver. Political analysts are unanimous that the visit of this U.S. Assistant Secretary of State in charge of South and Central Asia was not a routine trip. Besides, his involvement in Pakistan’s recent power shake-up has been highlighted internationally. His role in Nepal and Sri Lanka had been crucial. His Dhaka visit took place under the backdrop of US sanctions on some high officials of law and order agencies of Bangladesh. It has been reported that issues concerning democracy and human rights in Bangladesh were discussed at the U.S.’s insistence. Furthermore, who does not know about the farcical state of democracy in Bangladesh and the strangulation of human rights in the country?
What happened in the last two general elections was simply a mockery. The 2014 election was held without voter participation and was boycotted by the real opposition parties. More than half of the members of parliament were elected uncontested. In 2018, it was even more ludicrous when in most cases, ballot boxes were almost totally filled with ballot papers on the previous night of the actual voting date. Such election rigging has never taken place anywhere in the world.
In 2014, the Bangladesh Awami League (BAL) and its associates could come to power only with the help of India, a regional and hegemonistic power in southeast Asia. It is widely believed that the U.S. government then colluded with India for its global strategy. Washington is quite aware that BAL is an India-dependent party which does not hesitate to sacrifice the country’s vital interests to appease New Delhi so that it can hang on to power without people’s support. Many observers apprehend that the continuation of BAL’s present policy will make Bangladesh a virtual satellite state of India.
In 2018 both India and the People’s Republic of China validated the previous night’s rigged election of the BAL which was also tacitly approved by Washington without voicing any markable objection. New Delhi supported BAL because it is the main foreign mentor and patron of this party without which India cannot perpetuate its one-sided and unjust interest in Bangladesh. On the other hand, China played its money muscle in Bangladesh and provided huge amounts of loans to the regime of Dhaka for the implementation of some extravagant projects. The costs of those projects were increased abnormally to facilitate the corruption of the involved people linked to the regime. China did not do it without any interest. Its main objective is the extension of diplomatic and strategic influence in the region. Washington ignored and tacitly supported the rigged elections of 2014 and 2018 with the hope that New Delhi would serve its interests in Dhaka.
The Hasina-regime hoped that the situation would remain the same this time too and it would be able to manage these outside forces with some adjustments here and there. But to its utter disadvantage, regional and international geopolitics has taken some dramatic turns. The previous equation, particularly between the U.S. and India changed to a great extent. It must be noted here that Washington took the new approach when Sino-U.S. relations soured considerably over the issues of China’s Belt & Road Initiative and the U.S.’s recent Indo-Pacific Strategy. At the same time, U.S.-Russia relations took a dangerous turn over the Ukraine issue. In this case, India adopted a different policy that could not satisfy the United States to the extent that was expected. At this point, the strategic importance of Bangladesh became more evident to Washington and it thought that its interest might not be fully served by New Delhi. On the other hand, the Hasina regime gradually understood that New Delhi would not be able to guarantee U.S. support for it.
Under these circumstances, the people of Bangladesh became a bit optimistic when the U.S. government declared only a few months ago that Washington would no longer watch the situation of Bangladesh through the New Delhi-prism, which may side-track Washington’s interests. The US authorities publicly voiced its concerns about flagrant human rights violations in Bangladesh and the Dhaka regime’s undemocratic and repressive policies and practices. The people of Bangladesh have witnessed that Washington went a bit further this time.
The U.S. understood that Dhaka would not heed empty and high-sounding words. Lectures on democracy, rigging-free elections, and good governance will not be taken seriously if not backed up by practical actions. Under such a background, Washington imposed sanctions on some key figures of the law and order agencies of Bangladesh. They are the controlling and commanding officers of those agencies accused of extra-judicial killings and forced disappearance cases. It is astonishing that after these U.S. sanctions, the number of extra-judicial killings and forced disappearance incidents has decreased dramatically by almost 80%.
In the beginning, Dhaka lauded its voice and tried to rebuff Washington´s allegations and actions. The top brasses even questioned the state of the human rights situation in the U.S., the brutality and highhandedness of some members of the U.S. police service, etc. But they ignore the fact that these incidents are not state-sponsored or go unheeded as in Bangladesh. Soon they understood that they cannot mock the most powerful nation continuously because the U.S. has enough leverage to shut down their idiotic utterances. One can imagine what will happen if the U.S. and some of its allies stop or impose restrictions on the import of garments products from Bangladesh. The U.S. has many other alternatives and leverages, too.
Dhaka will make the biggest blunder if it wants to simultaneously play with India, the U.S., China, and Russia and try to engage one against the other. The Hasina regime cannot go against the wishes of its protector i.e., India. The U.S. is too powerful and Dhaka and New Delhi cannot ignore the strategic location of China when there is a spot called “chicken neck”.
Besides, the huge burden of Chinese loans will make the maneuvering capacity of Bangladesh very limited. The situation with Moscow will be the same as the Rooppur nuclear power plant is being installed with a Russian loan. This under-construction plant will be the single biggest project Bangladesh has ever taken in terms of investment. Some analysts apprehend it is going to be a “white elephant” for Bangladesh. Even if it becomes economically viable, the hands of Bangladesh will remain tightly tied with Moscow. The present regime has made the situation very delicate both for itself and for future governments.
It seems the Hasina regime has understood the gravity of the situation. It has stopped the audacity of bullying Washington. After Donald Lu’s visit, it did not make any derogatory remarks against the U.S. Rather the BAL claimed that the U.S. understood it better and Dhaka’s position had been strengthened.
The regime shifted the focus and mocked the opposition for their “expectation” from Lu’s visit. It is a fabrication of the fact. The BNP-led opposition never said that that Lu would establish democracy and human rights in Bangladesh overnight with one single visit. But if one looks at the U.S. statements after the visit, it will be evident that the U.S. has reiterated its position on democracy, human rights, and good governance and has not backed down. Rather, people are now feeling a changed situation in the political atmosphere, though not to the extent of their expectations. The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) could arrange big rallies at divisional headquarters after a long time, though amidst unbelievable government hindrances.
Now the billion-dollar question: what happens next? Will the Hasina regime yield to the pressures for the establishment of true democracy and good governance? Can people expect real improvement in the human rights situation? Or will the regime try to manage the U.S. by providing big concessions detrimental to the interest of the country?
It has been seen that this regime does not hesitate to compromise national interests just to hang on to power. It came to power both in 2014 and 2018 by compromising national interests to the outside powers and could cling on to it till today adopting the same policy. This time however, the BAL is stuck in the middle of the contradictory interests of 3 big powers. It cannot compromise too much to the interests of one country while antagonizing another.
What will the U.S. do? Will it come to an agreement if its “national interests” are served by the BAL regime? Its track records do not reject this probability altogether. But up till now, it has gone so far that it will be difficult for it to make a complete U-turn from its advocacy and commitments to democracy and human rights. In that case, the democracy and good governance aspirant Bangladeshi people will not forget the U.S. in the future.
A likely scenario is a middle ground, a compromise between the two parties. Whatever happens, one thing is certain – the incumbent regime will not be able to hold the next election in the way it did in 2014 and 2018.
It seems that the opposition has taken into consideration all these eventualities. Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, the General Secretary of the BNP said a few days ago that the foreigners will not directly install them to power. The people and the opposition must dethrone the present anti-people, anti-democratic, and fascist regime through vigorous and continuous movements. People expect that big powers will show respect for their aspiration for democracy and good governance without taking any sides. The rest will be done by the people themselves.
*Anisur Rahman is a senior Bangladeshi journalist now residing in Sweden.
February 12, 2023
The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of Aequitas Review.
