War, turmoil, and ethnic conflicts are producing refugees and displaced persons worldwide. It has become a recurring phenomenon in our history. But in the last two decades, refugee perceptions have changed negatively. The security perspective is becoming dominant in understanding refugee crises around the world. The host countries are also becoming skeptical, unlike before, when refugees were seen from a humanitarian perspective and were welcomed warmly.
This adverse change in perspective is largely fueled by the failure of the International Human Rights Regime. International Human Rights Regime may sound like an abstract idea, but it strongly influences the management of crises. The regime consists of stakeholders, great powers, supra-national authorities such as the European Union, non-state actors such as the United Nations, Human Rights Watch, treaties, institutions, and protection mechanisms.
The recent trend of forced displacements suggests that the number is increasing and the issues are becoming more protracted. The regime’s ineffectiveness is becoming visible, and without an effective regime, perceptions about refugees are changing negatively. It seems that the humanitarian perspective is taking a backseat while security implications are now at the steering wheel for the host countries. Hence, governments are now mostly unwilling to welcome refugees like in the past as they are skeptical about repatriation. In turn, refugees are also becoming uncertain about their dignified return.
The changing perception gives a feeling that the International Human Rights Regime is not focused on repatriation but on only maintaining the camps. It is because repatriation requires extra efforts, which has become dependent on geopolitical calculations. So, regaining trust is the main challenge for the regime now. And solving the Rohingya crisis can be the first step towards it.
Refugees around the world
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Global Trends Report 2021, currently, there are 89.3 million forcibly displaced persons worldwide. Among them, 27.1 million are refugees. 83% of these unfortunate people are hosted in low and middle-income countries. 27% of displaced have taken shelter in the least Developing Countries (LDC).
A comparison between Global Trend Report 2018 and 2021 suggests that the number of displaced persons is increasing. In 2018, the number of displaced persons was 70.8 million, which rose to 89.3 million within three years. The number of refugees also increased from 25.9 million to 27.1 million. Unfortunately, the returnees decreased from 600 thousand in 2018 to 429 thousand in 2021. Resettlement has also reduced from 81 thousand to 57 thousand in 2021.
Among many crises, the major refugee crises are in Syria, Afghanistan, Sudan, Rohingya camps, and in Somalia. Venezuelan displacement has also emerged as a new challenge for the world, and the most recent Ukraine crisis is also producing many refugees in Europe. Unfortunately, most of these crises have no solution in the foreseeable future because of their nature and current status. Syrian refugees are not likely to return as Bashar Al Assad is winning the decade-long civil war. The geopolitical calculations and multi-layered conflicts have made repatriation a distant dream.
The Venezuelan crisis is also not likely to be solved soon as it is a product of western sanctions. Unfortunately, the Somalian refugee crisis has been going on for 30 years now and has become a protracted one. Similarly, the Sudanese refugee crisis has also become a protracted one. Due to prolonged conflicts, environmental degradation and desertification, this crisis will not likely be solved soon. The Ukraine crisis is also at a very early stage, where the West is directly confronting Russia. The future of Ukrainian refugees is also unpredictable at this moment.
The Rohingya crisis is also not in good shape after five years. The latest military takeover of Myanmar has also halted the repatriation process. But, unlike the crises mentioned above, the Rohingya crisis has a repatriation deal, and their acceptance is increasing in Myanmar.
The Rohingya crisis
Rohingya refugees have been living in refugee camps in Cox’s Bazaar, Bangladesh for the last five years. Even though Bangladesh signed a repatriation deal with the Myanmar government immediately after the crisis, Myanmar still has unwillingness. The February coup and the aftermath worsened the scenario, halting the repatriation process.
But after the coup, the junta became the common enemy of most ethnic communities and pro-democracy fronts. The junta’s violent response to pro-democracy protests has also opened the eyes of the common people, who are now more accepting of the Rohingya. The National Unity Government (NUG) has already recognized the Rohingya and their citizenship for the first time in the history of Myanmar. The Arakan Army, another major stakeholder of Rakhine Province, has also recognized the Rohingya as the region’s inhabitants.
However, while positive developments occur in Myanmar, Rohingya refugees in camps are becoming more frustrated than ever. Many young Rohingya are engaging in drug peddling, falling prey to extremist recruiters and gang politics. The overall situation in camps is deteriorating and the refugees are also becoming conscious of these adverse impacts. Recently, the Rohingya have launched a “Go Home” campaign demanding safe and dignified repatriation. The “Go Home” campaign suggests that the Rohingya are frustrated with the International Human Rights Regime, hence calling for a self-action to return to their ancestral home.
Why is the Rohingya Crisis solvable?
Unlike other major crises, the refugee crisis is a solvable one in the near future. As the Rohingya are gaining acceptance in Myanmar and there is a repatriation deal already, the only challenge is to deal with the junta and ensure safe repatriation. The junta leaders are accused of crimes against humanity and genocide. The US government also acknowledged the genocide recently. There are already cases filed against Myanmar in the ICJ and ICC. Hence, an extra effort and putting geopolitical calculations aside can quickly solve the crisis and bring peace to Myanmar.
Why solve the crisis?
The International Human Rights Regime’s ineffectiveness and “management support” approach is fueling skepticism about the refugees. These examples are adversely affecting other refugee crises also. The recent Afghan refugee crisis can be an example of this claim. When the Taliban took over Kabul, the world saw the plight of the Afghans, who were also forced to cling onto the landing gear in a desperate bid to flee. Neighboring countries closed their borders to avoid refugees. Such actions resulted from the ineffectiveness of the rights regimes as there is no guarantee for the host countries.
Therefore, the International Human Rights regime has lost its trustworthiness. The main challenge is now to regain trust. To reiterate its effectiveness, it must provide exemplary empirical actions regarding repatriation. Solving the Rohingya crisis could be the best option at this moment. In the end, the International Human Rights Regime should focus on repatriating the Rohingya to bring the faith back and give a ray of hope to all the displaced persons in the world.
*The writer is a Doctoral researcher at the University of Groningen. Her areas of interest are Comparative Politics, Globalization, South Asian Studies, and Migration Studies.
July 20. 2022
The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of Aequitas Review.
