After nearly 20 long years without bloodshed by the Taliban, the conquest of Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, has changed many geopolitical dilemmas, including those of South Asia. Military and social science analyses are underway on what factors have worked behind the rapid success of the Taliban. However, international political analysts have kept track of how much a country has lost to a Taliban victory and what a country has gained. If we analyze the gains versus the losses, the name of India comes first.
After the 2001 Twin Tower attacks in New York, India has been the biggest beneficiary of the “war on terror.” As part of the “war on terror” project, India took the seat of the exclusive masterpiece in South Asia. An environment has been created in which not even a leaf can move in the region without the desire of India.
According to India’s will and choice, the United States helped in the formation of authoritarian governments in Afghanistan and Bangladesh. As a result, Islamist-minded political parties in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan are facing a crackdown. In Bangladesh, The Bangladesh Nationalists Party (BNP) led alliance top leaders are facing prison sentences, court cases, killings, and enforced disappearances. For almost a decade, an election system has not existed in Bangladesh. At such a time, the victory of the Taliban in Kabul seems like a “lighting without a thunderstorm.“
India’s investment in Afghanistan has reached $3 billion. More than four hundred large and small projects were implemented by India in Afghanistan. It built several power plants and the new parliament building of Afghanistan.
India used the opportunity of the “war on terror” and established four consulates nearer the border of Pakistan. Pakistan in turn accused India of supporting insurgent groups through these consulates.
India has been keeping Pakistan under surveillance through these four consulates. Many Pakistani army officers have lost their lives in the intensity of the insurgence groups of Baluchistan. As a result, Pakistan’s military expenditure increased greatly. Eventually, India was forced to remove its four consulates due to Kabul’s conquest by the Taliban.
Pakistan has started reaping the benefits. Its friendly relations with the United States have been strained since the 2001 operation against the Taliban. Because of the United States peace talks with the Taliban, Pakistan became relevant to the US again.
India’s decisive intervention in Afghanistan’s politics has also forced a strong relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Mahmud Qureshi reached Kabul to help the country’s government after the Taliban victory. This is a new message for the regional politics of South Asia.
To accelerate China’s Road and Belt Initiative, Beijing needs a stable government in Afghanistan. It will be helpful for China to establish a monopoly on trade and commerce in Central Asia with the support of the desired government of Afghanistan. The likelihood of a military coalition, including China-Afghanistan -Pakistan, against the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue -QUAD (U.S-India- Japan and Australia) has become likely. Iran may also join the alliance with China. On the other hand, Kashmir freedom fighters have already asked for help from the Taliban to establish the self-determination rights of the Kashmiri people. In all, the environment of a new conflict in Taliban-centered South Asia is being developed.
Now let’s talk about the Taliban’s bloodless rapid success. The aftermath of the Taliban’s victory suggests that there is a stark difference between the 1990 Taliban and the current Taliban. In just a couple of weeks, the Taliban had been able to take control of almost the entire country with lightning speed. The Taliban have begun to study this “operational art.” Militants believe that the Taliban have tried to combine all military and civilian forces to achieve their political goals.
The “Operational Art” in military terminology is “the cognitive approach by commanders and staffs—supported by their skill, knowledge, experience, creativity, and judgment—to develop strategies, campaigns, and operations to organize and employ military forces by integrating ends, ways, and means.” In the battlefield, the “operational art” gives direction to the political purpose and strategy of an army. Security analysts in the Western world are now questioning how the Taliban adopted the modern tactics of this operation. In contrast, they have not received any course from a modern war college. However, there is no denying that the Taliban has been trying to become a powerful military group for almost two decades. This is because, in the presence of US forces, they have acquired skills such as setting up Improvised Explosive Devices (IIDs) in rural areas, including conducting sudden attacks.
According to the United States’ renowned think tank, the Atlantic Council, the current Taliban is more efficient in using social media than AK47 rifles, which also accelerated the victory of the Taliban. Security analysts believe that the topics that have worked as a catalyst in the case of the Taliban’s victory are- Isolation of Afghan Military forces, being Threatened by text messages, adopting new techniques in operation, and “Negotiating to buy time and constrain military power.”
Isolating Afghan military forces
One of the biggest questions in the world is how the Afghan military, for almost, after an investment of $88 billion, in collaboration with the NATO alliance, did not stand up against the Taliban. In fact, to deal with the Afghan military forces in this operation, the Taliban adopted a way to avoid confrontation, even when the Afghan government had set up a countrywide check post for the last 18 months. At that time, Afghan security forces seriously depended on a military outpost. In this regard, the Taliban used this opportunity and intensified the attack against military food and goods supplied by the roads.
As a result, aircrafts and helicopters relied on the road supply and on the supply of patrols. The Taliban continued to increase the intensity of the attack due to the target of airplanes and helicopters. This had intensified the food crisis as well as the ammunition crisis at the check posts. The free movement of members of the military almost stopped. The Afghan forces broke down humanly. As a result, with the withdrawal of US troops, the Taliban quickly became successful in their military operations.
Threatened by text messages
In order to overcome the Afghan forces, the Taliban military attacks were very skillfully done, breaking the morale and solidarity of the soldiers. According to Samarian San Toz, one of the most critical aspects of the war is the “desperate desire to win the war.” The Taliban were carefully preoccupied with separating the Afghan forces through psychological warfare. They very skillfully used social media.
Moreover, the Taliban used fake IDs in social media by engaging in a large-scale information war. The widespread propaganda played an influential role in breaking the morale of Afghan soldiers. In this case, they used senior members of different tribes to inform the country of the surrender of Afghan forces by the Taliban. A video was uploaded to different Twitter accounts where the Afghan forces surrendered to the Taliban in different cities. Those videos were also sent by text messages to different generals of the Afghan forces, where it was written in the caption- “You are in a battlefield, food and ammunition are running out. When you look at your mobile phone, what you see is the picture of the surrender of your companions. Even if you want to fight, you have been stopped by your morale and the desire to fight “.
Operational new trend
To humiliate the ability of the Afghan government and Kabul, the Taliban conducted an operational new trend for the last two years. The Taliban had changed the campaign over the past year. Two years ago, the Taliban used explosive devices to explode moving vehicles to intimidate the public and challenge the government’s capabilities. Instead of carrying out bombings, the group had carried out several covert operations, including the assassinations of Afghan military officers and key members of civil society. They killed several pilots of military aircrafts.
The Taliban wanted to convey two messages through this operation. Firstly, the Ashraf Ghani government had failed to provide security to the people. Secondly, The Afghan Air Force had also been given the upper hand. As a result, no one was interested in taking the responsibility for the pilot again.
Through discussion, minimize military power against Taliban
The Taliban accepted a coordinated diplomatic strategy as well as military operations in achieving their political goals. As a result, after peace talks between the Taliban and the United States, the US military activities had been reduced against the Taliban. In order to manage the countrywide campaign, the Taliban had an advantage. Through peace negotiations, the Taliban gained time, allowing them to train their new members.
Furthermore, only the Taliban signed bilateral agreements with the United States. It led to the political defeat of the Ashraf Ghani government. As the Taliban entered into a peace agreement with the United States, regional powers (Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran) became desperate to co-operate with the Taliban in new ventures. All in all, it paved the way for the Taliban’s speedy, bloodless victory in Kabul.
The Taliban’s victory is not the last word. Because they have been in an offensive position for the last decade, now that power is in their hands, they are in a position to defend themselves. In addition to protecting themselves, they must also take responsibility for protecting the lives and property of ordinary people. In addition, in the last 20 years, a substantial middle class has developed in Afghanistan. Along with this development, many cultural and psychological changes have taken place in Afghan society.
The Taliban rulers need to understand these changes. However, they have already tried to show a lot of smartness—their continued presence in the media in particular. Flexible attitudes toward both American and Indian citizens, former Afghan government officials, a general amnesty for employees – are also evidence of a changed Taliban. They have also announced the establishment of an Islamic “Emirate” instead of a “Caliphate” – which conveys an important message. If a Caliphate had been declared, the international media might have tried to link the rise of the Taliban with ISIS and the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant.
However, the challenges facing the Taliban are to keep Afghanistan’s economy afloat, to involve women in national development, and to establish a pro-people government that includes Afghanistan’s various ethnic groups. Dealing with extremist groups such as ISIS in Afghanistan is and will continue to be a significant challenge for the Taliban.
*The writer is an International Security Analyst and Adjunct Faculty member at The State University of New York.
September 8, 2021
The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of Aequitas Review.
